Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.341769 0.389533 0.441402 0.501893 0.570487 0.645839 0.734885
2025-09-07 0.277204 0.341527 0.416771 0.511217 0.626545 0.762755 0.935840
2025-09-14 0.216432 0.286329 0.373832 0.491269 0.644642 0.838056 1.100481
2025-09-21 0.175623 0.248300 0.345219 0.483643 0.676047 0.933834 1.305404
2025-09-28 0.143296 0.215654 0.318043 0.473061 0.701442 1.025198 1.518858
2025-10-05 0.124991 0.199374 0.310596 0.488348 0.764721 1.177474 1.840337
2025-10-12 0.106398 0.179341 0.294253 0.487538 0.803725 1.299666 2.135886
2025-10-19 0.092603 0.164424 0.283266 0.493007 0.852861 1.443802 2.486618
2025-10-26 0.082466 0.153795 0.277420 0.505704 0.915304 1.617503 2.910621
2025-11-02 0.069600 0.136108 0.256644 0.489142 0.924649 1.702725 3.195320
2025-11-09 0.057886 0.118485 0.233125 0.463692 0.913747 1.750155 3.418437
2025-11-16 0.050048 0.106970 0.219119 0.453773 0.929966 1.848457 3.748931
2025-11-23 0.043096 0.096287 0.205533 0.443541 0.946090 1.952811 4.115083
2025-11-30 0.038953 0.090803 0.201611 0.452518 1.002716 2.145300 4.688016
2025-12-07 0.033223 0.080787 0.186529 0.435319 1.001711 2.220592 5.029932
2025-12-14 0.029161 0.073850 0.177038 0.428904 1.023245 2.346586 5.500560
2025-12-21 0.025506 0.067198 0.167085 0.419753 1.037105 2.457785 5.955279
2025-12-28 0.023711 0.064831 0.166812 0.433542 1.106804 2.704596 6.758785
2026-01-04 0.021337 0.060525 0.161093 0.432960 1.141574 2.875063 7.406375
2026-01-11 0.019520 0.057371 0.157764 0.437930 1.191084 3.088025 8.190237
2026-01-18 0.018181 0.055296 0.156912 0.449312 1.259030 3.356295 9.153925
2026-01-25 0.015943 0.050204 0.147078 0.434616 1.255151 3.441386 9.654422
2026-02-01 0.013711 0.044694 0.135142 0.411988 1.225848 3.455741 9.968280